Global News

Historical analogies are powerful tools. While no analogy is perfect, they can be extremely effective in policy debates, making concepts that are hard to imagine seem real. In discussions about cybersecurity, experts often warn about a “cyber Pearl Harbor.” The analogy has been marshalled to drive funding for programs, personnel, and commands and centers throughout the Defense Department.

For the Navy’s intelligence community, the most appropriate historical precedent isn’t Pearl Harbor — it’s the Battle of Jutland. A cyber Pearl Harbor suggests a surprise attack. The United States is already in the midst of a great power competition with China and Russia, and the pieces are already moving on the ocean’s chessboard. Jutland was a famous WWI naval clash where capable British forces were hamstrung by tradition and conservatism, and ultimately proved unable to strike a decisive victory over the German High Seas Fleet. Today’s naval intelligence faces a similar set of challenges.