To counter China, Washington must help its ally address economic issues.
By Alvin Camba, an assistant professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver.Filipino fishermen along with civilian volunteers arrive at a meeting point in the South China Sea on May 15.
Filipino fishermen along with civilian volunteers arrive at a meeting point in the South China Sea on May 15. TED ALJIBE/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
MAY 28, 2024, 2:30 PM
Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, elected president of the Philippines in 2022 and the son of its infamous 10th president, was expected to continue his family’s close relationship with the Chinese embassy in office. But as he became aware of the extent of China’s coercive activities in the South China Sea and after his last-ditch effort to convince the country to back off failed, he surprised the world. In February 2023, Marcos accepted the overtures of the United States by committing to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, bringing the Philippines into America’s orbit until at least 2028.
As Marcos said during a joint statement with President Joe Biden at the time the agreement was struck, “it is only natural … for the Philippines to look to its sole treaty partner in the world to strengthen and to redefine the relationship that we have and the roles that we play in the face of those rising tensions that we see now around the South China Sea.” And as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters when he hosted Marcos at the Pentagon in April 2024, “the United States and the Philippines are more than allies—we’re family.”
Marcos’ predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, largely played down China’s construction of military outposts on reclaimed islands, overlooked the regular encroachment of the Chinese maritime militia ships, and called the 2016 Hague Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in favor of the Philippines on the South China Sea case a “piece of paper.” Now, with the help of the United States, the country’s battle to reassert its sovereign rights has resumed. But in order to be effective, the Philippines’ position requires continuity. Should Sara Duterte, the China-leaning Philippine vice president—and daughter of Rodrigo—emerge victorious in the 2028 Presidential elections, then she will reverse Marcos’s gains in the contested maritime domains. The result will be that China dominates the region and asserts its power across Taiwan, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific.
While those elections are still four years away, Marcos must work to consolidate domestic support in the interim. If he fails to deliver economically, China will win. Duterte’s faction argues that Marcos spends too much time on maritime disputes instead of alleviating day-to-day economic issues, and the South China Sea issue will not be at the forefront of Filipino concerns in the 2028 Philippine elections. Rather, Filipino votes will be about the low prices of food, affordable utilities, the efficiency of government programs, the quality of basic services, and the inclusiveness of long-term government plans. This means the U.S. needs to think beyond increasing military aid, and instead look to scale up existing overseas development assistance programs as well as expediting large-scale development commitments, in order to shore up long-term security in the region.
WHEN MARCOS RAN IN 2022, he promised to improve Filipino lives, but the reality is that his administration has so far has failed to deliver. Dismal economic conditions are felt by the average Filipino on a day-to-day basis.
First, inflation has been the biggest concern for most Filipinos since the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. The Central Bank has attempted several measures to curb it, including the decision to increase interest rates. However, that measure has limited impact. In February 2024, inflation finally decreased to 3.4 percent, which was far lower than that of the previous years, but 75 percent of Filipinos still feel dissatisfied with Marcos’s handling of the situation.
Second, while the Philippine economy grew at a 5.6 percent rate in 2023, faster than any Southeast Asian country, the average Filipino does not feel these gains. Economic growth has benefited the rich, worsening income inequality. In addition, inflation has rapidly outpaced wages.
Third, Marcos has frequently traveled overseas to ask for foreign investment and development finance. He has received in return pledges, but it will take time before these deals impact the lives of Filipinos.
The Philippines Needs Butter, Not Just Guns
Global News 
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